The slide is over for Will Levis.
Weeks of speculation built to a crescendo in the days before the draft, with the idea that the Kentucky quarterback might come off the board early on Thursday night.
As in “first-overall selection” early.
However, that did not materialize. Instead of hearing his name called during the first round, Levis endured a long night in the green room, sliding out of the first round completely.
Thankfully for the quarterback, that slide is over. At the start of the second round the Tennessee Titans moved up to draft the Kentucky quarterback, bringing his wait to an end.
Now the questions become two-fold: Why did he slide, and what are the Titans getting in him?
Levis was one of the more intriguing quarterbacks to evaluate this draft cycle. During the 2021 season, he looked every bit the part of a future first-round selection, and there is a strong case to be made that had en entered the 2021 NFL Draft he joins Kenny Pickett in the first round. Instead, Levis returned to campus and regressed a bit as he dealt with injuries, a change in offensive coordinator, and a departure of talent around him.
But when you watch him, both in 2021 and in 2022, you see flashes of what NFL scouts are looking for at the position, both historically, and in the modern NFL. You see athleticism, and the ability to create outside the pocket. You can see the “pro-style” moments, when he is carrying out a run fake, turning his back to the defense, and then making a throw after having to reset his eyes and pick up the coverage.
Plays like this against Vanderbilt:
Levis starts under center, turning his back on the defense to carry out a run fake before whipping his head around to scan the coverage. That’s when he fires a strike, connecting with the second of two dig routes working from left to right.
Now, you might be wondering why there is an emphasis on turning his back to the defense. Before the play begins, Vanderbilt shows Levis a single-high safety look. But as the play unfolds they spin into two-high coverage, all while Levis is carrying out the run fake.
As a quarterback, you only get so much time to make a decision. That “decision-making window” as I like to call it begins the second you get the play in from the sideline. You start thinking about the progression reads you will make based on the coverage, any potential protection calls or changes you might have to make, and what you might have to do in the face of a blitz.
All those options are informed by what you see before the snap, to help guide you to a well-informed, and correct, decision with the football.
But anything that disrupts that decision-making window, such as a rotation in the secondary or when you have to turn your back on the defense, constricts the time you get to make the right decision. Both those things happen here, so when a quarterback can turn his back on the defense, and get to the right decision with the football, it is notable.
When the Titans drafted him on Friday, they likely took a long look at what Levis did in 2021. Because as noted, he looked every bit the future first-round pick during that season, and some of what he did on film showed high-level quarterback play.
Take this dig route — a route which Levis throws extremely well — against LSU from 2021. Notice how he throws this to get his receiver to throttle down, as he knows the backside “robber” safety is lurking:
‘Or this timing and rhythm throw against Tennessee, as he hits the curl route with pressure bearing down on him from the left edge:
Another example is this throw against Mississippi State. Levis sees the blitz coming off the right edge and, knowing he does not have much time, he snaps off a quick throw to Wan’Dale Robinson on the out route:
Armed with the knowledge that the blitz is coming, Levis speeds up his process and punishes the defense, and the result is an explosive play for the offense.
So, these are the foundations that the Titans can build upon as he adjusts to the next level. And his ability to work under center, execute a play-action heavy offense, and make those “back to the defense” types of reads and throws, is a near-ideal fit with the Titans .
As for the questions about why Levis slid out of the first round? Those might begin with the work it may take to get Levis where he needs to be. During 2022 there were mistakes that he made, and mechanical inconsistencies — particularly in the lower body — that are going to need fixing. Before the 2021 NFL Draft, I was part of a film session with Matt Waldman and Dan Hatman where we broke down Davis Mills. During that discussion Hatman, a former NFL scout with the Giants and Eagles talked about how before the draft coaches will meet with position coaches on players, to get a sense of what might need development with a prospect, how long it might take to fix, and if it can even be done:
Perhaps, in Levis’s case, those conversations indicated that the work that needs to be done will take more time than expected, which might see his grade drop below the grades of other players who are ready to contribute immediately.
Perhaps the board just fell in a way that saw QB-needy teams go in a different direction. Take, for example, the Seattle Seahawks. While many thought Seattle would add a quarterback with one of their two first-round selections, they instead added Devon Witherspoon at the start of the first round, and then added the top WR on many boards, adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Levis might have been an option for them with that second pick, but maybe the idea of passing on WR1 was not enticing.
Ultimately, this could be a good thing for Levis. This is the case made by Ryan Leaf on Friday morning, that falling to the second round could be a blessing for him because he can avoid the dreaded “bust” label:
“Adversity like that, maybe humiliation like that, you grow from it. You learn how to deal with it in a positive and healthy way, just like what it’s going to be like to be a starting quarterback in the NFL,” Leaf continued. “Because you’re going to fail, you are, on the biggest stage possible. And when you don’t have those unrealistic expectations, I think this is a huge thing for Will Levis, and I think you can look at it as an entire positive moving forward.”
Another benefit to falling? Patience, both from within the organization and outside. When you come off the board in the first round, or more particularly early in the first round, as a quarterback there will be pressure on the coaching staff for you to see the field. Pressure from ownership, and pressure from the fan base.
Now, when you come off the board in the second, that pressure is reduced, and the organization can take its time with you. And by going to Tennessee, with Ryan Tannehill already in the fold, there will not be immediate pressure for Levis to see the field. The organization can take their time with him, potentially waiting deep into the 2023 season for him to see the field.
Of course, there is a flip side to that. The team might be more willing to remain patient with a first-round pick, and quicker to move on from a later-round selection.
His new teammate Malik Willis can fill him in on that aspect of life in the NFL.
Still, there is at least a case to be made that by falling, Levis has ended up in a good spot for him, in a good environment to develop, and in an offense that fits his skill-set.
And as we know, sometimes what matters most is not the pre-draft evaluation, but the post-draft fit.
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