Hurricane forecasters are tracking a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that they say could form into a tropical depression or storm by the beginning of next week.
UPDATE: Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico unchanged; systems near Cabo Verde more likely to form
The broad area of low pressure could slowly develop as it moves west and approaches the west coast of the Gulf, National Hurricane Center forecasters said in a Wednesday morning update. The disturbance is expected to hit land by the middle of next week.
While it has a 20 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone sometime in the next week, it has no chance of forming in the next two days.
Forecasters first spotted the low pressure system Tuesday night.
Disturbances off the coast of Africa
Two disturbances off the coast of Africa are headed for conditions that could be favorable to some gradual development, hurricane forecasters said at 7 a.m. Wednesday.
A trough of low pressure situated about 750 miles west-southwest of Cabo Verde is producing showers and thunderstorms in the central Atlantic Ocean. A tropical depression could form in the next several days as the system moves west-northwest at about 10 mph.
Forecasters said the disturbance has a 50% chance of forming within the next week.
A tropical wave moving west off the coast of Africa is also producing a large area of thunderstorms and showers. Forecasters said the system is expected to move west-northwest at about 15 mph, eventually forming into an area of low pressure. Some further development is possible, but forecasters said the system should reach conditions that will help hinder development early next week.
The wave has a 40% chance of forming in the next seven days.
Forecasters first spotted the disturbances near Africa Monday after nearly two weeks of quiet in the Atlantic Ocean.
The 2023 hurricane season
The return of El Niño could bring a wetter second half of the year to Louisiana and a reduced risk of hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Climate Prediction Center announced March 9 that La Niña, which usually causes more hurricanes to form in the Atlantic, was officially over after an unusually long three years.
El Niño and its sister La Niña are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a set of conditions over the Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns across the world. In Louisiana, the biggest effects involve hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless, this year's first cyclone hit in January, long before the official start of hurricane season, and June alone saw three named storms. Now forecasters are predicting that 2023 will prove to be an above-average hurricane season, with 18 named storms.
The first tropical storm to form in the Atlantic this year was named Arlene, reaching wind speeds of 40 mph on June 2 as it headed for Cuba. Don was the first storm to reach hurricane status in 2023, producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 mph on July 22 before rapidly weakening to a tropical storm the following day.
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Hurricane forecasters spot disturbance in Gulf of Mexico, continue tracking systems near Africa - NOLA.com
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