In a crowded field of playoff contenders, the Portland Timbers have two games remaining on their regular-season schedule. Seeding for the MLS Cup playoff matchups in the Western Conference will likely come down to Decision Day, but the Timbers can guarantee a spot in the postseason if things go right for them this weekend.
Here is how the Timbers (11-8-13, 46 points) can clinch a playoff spot:
WIN VS. LAFC, PLUS ...
Portland can put itself in a strong position to clinch a playoff spot with a win over Supporters’ Shield leaders LAFC on Sunday. Three points won’t be enough, though, as the Timbers will also need Real Salt Lake to lose or tie on the road at the LA Galaxy on Saturday to clinch in this scenario. If Real Salt Lake wins, its playoff hopes may rest in a highly anticipated season finale vs. Portland on Oct. 9.
A win for Portland vs. LAFC would prevent both Seattle and Vancouver from catching up to the Timbers, too, although it would not fully eliminate their Cascadia rivals from playoff contention.
TIE VS. LAFC, PLUS ...
A draw — Portland’s favorite result this season — vs. LAFC makes clinching a playoff spot a bit trickier, but not impossible. Portland could clinch with a draw on Sunday only if Real Salt Lake loses to the Galaxy AND the Sounders tie or lose any of their final three games. If RSL wins and Portland ties, the Timbers would need to beat RSL in the finale to avoid being jumped. If both RSL and Portland tie in game 31 of 32, the Timbers would just need to tie RSL (and avoid Seattle winning all of its three remaining matches) in order to clinch a playoff spot in their final game.
LOSE VS. LAFC
The Timbers can’t secure a playoff spot if they lose to LAFC on Sunday. That makes it possible for RSL to pass them regardless of how its game goes vs. the Galaxy, and it also opens the door for Vancouver and Seattle to sneak into the postseason as well.
It won’t be an easy task for Portland to avoid defeat at the hands of the top team in the conference as LAFC pursues the Supporters’ Shield.
WHAT ARE THE TIEBREAKERS?
Tiebreakers could make or break Portland depending on how its final two games go and how its conference compatriots fare. All those draws could come back to haunt the Timbers in the end for more than just the dropped points.
The MLS tiebreakers are as follows:
1. Wins (Portland has a maximum win total of 13. Minnesota can win 15, Seattle 14, and both RSL and Vancouver 13)
2. Goal differential (Portland is at plus-3, Seattle at plus-2, Minnesota at minus-3, RSL at minus-4, Vancouver at minus-17)
3. Total goals (Portland 51, Minnesota 46, Seattle 44, RSL 39, Vancouver 38)
4. Fewest disciplinary points per match
5. Away goal differential
6. Away goals
7. Home goal differential
8. Home goals
9. Coin flip (in the case of a two-way tie after all eight prior tiebreakers have been addressed) or drawing of lots (three-way tie or larger in the same scenario)
Next up: Portland vs. LAFC kicks off at noon Sunday at Providence Park (TV on ABC).
-- Ryan Clarke, rclarke@oregonian.com, Twitter: @RyanTClarke
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September 28, 2022 at 12:28AM
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Can the Portland Timbers clinch a playoff spot this weekend? Scenarios, tiebreakers explained - OregonLive
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