The NFL draft has a sweet spot, and in 2022, it belongs to the NY Jets - Jets X-Factor

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The New York Jets are perfectly positioned to capitalize on the NFL draft’s sweet spot

In general, NFL draft choices are expected to gradually decrease in value with each and every slot down the board. That’s just simple logic. The 11th pick offers more options than the 12th pick, so over the course of time, we expect players taken with the 11th pick to yield more production than the 12th pick. Pick 35 should be better than pick 36, pick 88 should be better than pick 89, and so on.

This has proven to be true for the most part. Obviously, there are some pick slots whose all-time yield stands out as an outlier due to one or two grand-slam picks that were made in that position, but there continues to be a strong linear relationship between pick-slot and expected production. With each slot you move down the board, the expectations get lower.

However, an anomaly has emerged over the past few drafts; a sweet spot, if you will. It’s a defined range of selections where the production yield has actually been significantly higher than the range that comes before it.

This sweet spot comes in a part of the draft where the New York Jets have the ammunition to do massive damage in 2022: the early second round.

Is the early-second round a better position in the NFL draft than the late-first round?

Over the past few years, we have seen much better results from the first few picks of the second round than the final few picks of the first round.

Seen below is the difference in production between the final eight picks of the first round (25-32) and the first eight picks of the second round (33-40) over the previous six drafts (2016 to 2021). Both groups include 48 players.

• Picks 25-32: 4 Pro Bowlers, 746 total Approximate Value (AV)*, 15.5 AV per player, 1,323 games started, 27.6 starts per player
• Picks 33-40: 8 Pro Bowlers, 812 total Approximate Value (AV)*, 16.9 AV per player, 1,567 games started, 32.6 starts per player

*- Approximate Value is a metric via Pro Football Reference that attempts to measure a player’s cumulative impact on winning.

With twice as many Pro Bowlers, 1.4 more AV per player, and 5.0 more starts per player, the early part of the second round has been producing far better results than the final run of the first round.

In terms of AV, the 33-40 range has outperformed the 25-32 range in five of the past six drafts:

Draft	AV from picks 25-32	AV from picks 33-40
2021	29	34
2020	65	84
2019	107	109
2018	169	214
2017	226	150
2016	150	221

The early second round gains its edge over the late first round through a significantly lower bust rate. While the two ranges each offer a similar ceiling, there has tended to be a much lower bust rate in the early second round.

Over the last six drafts, the best 15 players selected in the 25-32 range (in terms of total AV) combined for 499 AV (33.3 per player), which is actually a tad better than the 488 AV (32.5 per player) accumulated by the 15 best players selected in the 33-40 range. This tells us that there has tended to be a nearly identical ceiling for players taken in these two areas of the draft.

However, the non-top-15 players in the 25-32 range combined for just 247 AV (7.5 per player), significantly less than the 324 AV (9.8 per player) racked up by the non-top-15 players in the 33-40 range. This tells us that there has tended to be a much higher floor for players selected in the early second round than for players selected in the late first round.

The 25-32 range has delivered a whopping 25 players who are currently averaging 3.0 AV per season or less – more than half of all picks in that range. For reference on how ineffective a 3-AV season is, it’s equal to the total that Keelan Cole, Ashtyn Davis, and Shaq Lawson had for the Jets in 2022.

Meanwhile, the 33-40 range has delivered only 12 players who are currently averaging 3.0 AV per season or less, making up merely one quarter of all picks.

The question of course becomes, “how legitimate is this data?” Is this a blip on the radar or something that we can expect to continue for years to come?

I believe this phenomenon has a good chance of being sustained. My theory is that, in the late first round, we see a bevy of contending teams draft with a win-now mindset, bypassing overall talent in favor of players who can fill one of their few vacant starting positions. This leads to better talent falling into the early second round.

For your viewing pleasure, here is a look at the picks made in the NFL draft’s 25-32 range from 2016-21:

Tm	Player	AV	AV/Yr	Pos	Year	Rnd	Pick	PB	G	GS
PIT	T.J. Watt	60	12.0	OLB	2017	1	30	4	77	77
BAL	Lamar Jackson	59	14.8	QB	2018	1	32	2	58	49
NOR	Ryan Ramczyk	55	11.0	T	2017	1	32	0	73	73
BUF	Tre'Davious White	45	9.0	CB	2017	1	27	2	72	72
GNB	Kenny Clark	40	6.7	DT	2016	1	27	2	89	75
SEA	Germain Ifedi	36	6.0	G	2016	1	31	0	85	83
CLE	Emmanuel Ogbah	32	5.3	DE	2016	2	32	0	83	67
ATL	Calvin Ridley	26	6.5	WR	2018	1	26	0	49	35
BAL	Marquise Brown	24	8.0	WR	2019	1	25	0	46	41
CLE	Jabrill Peppers	22	4.4	S	2017	1	25	0	61	59
ATL	Kaleb McGary	21	7.0	T	2019	1	31	0	46	45
PIT	Terrell Edmunds	21	5.3	S	2018	1	28	0	64	60
NWE	Sony Michel	21	5.3	RB	2018	1	31	0	55	35
WAS	Montez Sweat	19	6.3	DE	2019	1	26	0	42	42
BAL	Patrick Queen	18	9.0	LB	2020	1	28	0	33	33
PIT	Artie Burns	16	2.7	CB	2016	1	25	0	69	38
ATL	Takkarist McKinley	15	3.0	DE	2017	1	26	0	60	27
LAC	Jerry Tillery	14	4.7	DT	2019	1	28	0	47	29
SFO	Brandon Aiyuk	13	6.5	WR	2020	1	25	0	29	27
KAN	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	13	6.5	RB	2020	1	32	0	23	23
CAR	Vernon Butler	13	2.2	DT	2016	1	30	0	76	19
BAL	Hayden Hurst	12	3.0	TE	2018	1	25	0	57	18
SEA	Rashaad Penny	12	3.0	RB	2018	1	27	0	37	6
CLE	David Njoku	12	2.4	TE	2017	1	29	0	65	36
SEA	Jordyn Brooks	11	5.5	LB	2020	1	27	0	31	23
BUF	Gregory Rousseau	10	10.0	DL	2021	1	30	0	17	17
JAX	Taven Bryan	10	2.5	DT	2018	1	29	0	63	17
OAK	Johnathan Abram	9	3.0	S	2019	1	27	0	28	28
DAL	Taco Charlton	9	1.8	DE	2017	1	28	0	55	13
SEA	L.J. Collier	8	2.7	DE	2019	1	29	0	37	16
MIN	Mike Hughes	8	2.0	CB	2018	1	30	0	41	12
SFO	Reuben Foster	8	1.6	LB	2017	1	31	0	16	16
NYG	Deandre Baker	6	2.0	CB	2019	1	30	0	26	17
NWE	N'Keal Harry	6	2.0	WR	2019	1	32	0	33	18
ARI	Robert Nkemdiche	6	1.0	DT	2016	1	29	0	38	6
MIN	Jeff Gladney	5	2.5	CB	2020	1	31	0	16	15
SFO	Joshua Garnett	5	0.8	G	2016	1	28	0	25	11
BAL	Rashod Bateman	4	4.0	WR	2021	1	27	0	12	4
GNB	Eric Stokes	4	4.0	DB	2021	1	29	0	16	14
TAM	Joe Tryon-Shoyinka	4	4.0	OLB	2021	1	32	0	17	6
CLE	Greg Newsome II	3	3.0	DB	2021	1	26	0	12	11
BAL	Odafe Oweh	3	3.0	DE	2021	1	31	0	15	2
MIA	Noah Igbinoghene	3	1.5	CB	2020	1	30	0	23	3
GNB	Jordan Love	2	1.0	QB	2020	1	26	0	6	1
DEN	Paxton Lynch	2	0.3	QB	2016	1	26	0	5	4
NOR	Payton Turner	1	1.0	DE	2021	1	28	0	5	0
TEN	Isaiah Wilson	0	0.0	T	2020	1	29	0	1	0
JAX	Travis Etienne	0	0.0	RB	2021	1	25	0	0	0

And here is a look at the picks made in the NFL draft’s 33-40 range from 2016-21:

Tm	Player	AV	AV/Yr	Pos	Year	Rnd	Pick	PB	G	GS
IND	Darius Leonard	55	13.8	LB	2018	2	36	3	58	58
KAN	Chris Jones	50	8.3	DT	2016	2	37	3	90	69
MIA	Xavien Howard	47	7.8	CB	2016	2	38	3	72	71
ARI	Budda Baker	42	8.4	S	2017	2	36	4	78	68
JAX	Myles Jack	37	6.2	OLB	2016	2	36	0	88	82
CLE	Nick Chubb	35	8.8	RB	2018	2	35	3	58	51
DAL	Jaylon Smith	31	5.2	OLB	2016	2	34	1	74	58
IND	Braden Smith	27	6.8	G	2018	2	37	0	56	54
SFO	Deebo Samuel	26	8.7	WR	2019	2	36	1	38	31
NYG	Sterling Shepard	26	4.3	WR	2016	2	40	0	72	70
JAX	Cam Robinson	25	5.0	T	2017	2	34	0	61	61
NYG	Will Hernandez	23	5.8	G	2018	2	34	0	62	56
SDG	Hunter Henry	23	3.8	TE	2016	2	35	0	72	59
NYJ	Marcus Maye	21	4.2	S	2017	2	39	0	60	60
DEN	Courtland Sutton	20	5.0	WR	2018	2	40	1	50	40
JAX	Jawaan Taylor	19	6.3	T	2019	2	35	0	49	49
CLE	Austin Corbett	19	4.8	C	2018	2	33	0	55	41
CHI	James Daniels	18	4.5	C	2018	2	39	0	54	48
CAR	Curtis Samuel	18	3.6	WR	2017	2	40	0	58	33
CIN	Tee Higgins	17	8.5	WR	2020	2	33	0	30	28
IND	Michael Pittman Jr.	17	8.5	WR	2020	2	34	0	30	25
TAM	Ronald Jones II	17	4.3	RB	2018	2	38	0	55	25
ARI	Byron Murphy	15	5.0	CB	2019	2	33	0	47	39
GNB	Kevin King	15	3.0	CB	2017	2	33	0	51	42
BUF	Zay Jones	15	3.0	WR	2017	2	37	0	79	45
DET	D'Andre Swift	13	6.5	RB	2020	2	35	0	26	8
BUF	Cody Ford	13	4.3	T	2019	2	38	0	38	29
TAM	Sean Murphy-Bunting	12	4.0	CB	2019	2	39	0	41	31
MIA	Robert Hunt	11	5.5	G	2020	2	39	0	33	28
IND	Rock Ya-Sin	11	3.7	CB	2019	2	34	0	41	29
OAK	Trayvon Mullen	10	3.3	CB	2019	2	40	0	37	31
NYG	Xavier McKinney	9	4.5	S	2020	2	36	0	23	20
NWE	Kyle Dugger	9	4.5	S	2020	2	37	0	29	20
DEN	Javonte Williams	8	8.0	RB	2021	2	35	0	17	1
LAC	Forrest Lamp	8	1.6	G	2017	2	38	0	26	18
MIA	Jevon Holland	6	6.0	S	2021	2	36	0	16	13
PHI	Landon Dickerson	6	6.0	OL	2021	2	37	0	14	13
SEA	Malik McDowell	6	1.2	DT	2017	2	35	0	15	14
JAX	Tyson Campbell	5	5.0	DB	2021	2	33	0	15	14
CAR	Yetur Gross-Matos	5	2.5	DE	2020	2	38	0	26	9
TAM	Noah Spence	5	0.8	DE	2016	2	39	0	43	6
NYJ	Elijah Moore	4	4.0	WR	2021	2	34	0	11	6
NWE	Christian Barmore	3	3.0	DL	2021	2	38	0	17	2
HOU	Ross Blacklock	3	1.5	DT	2020	2	40	0	29	3
CAR	Greg Little	3	1.0	T	2019	2	37	0	14	6
TEN	Kevin Dodd	2	0.3	DE	2016	2	33	0	18	1
CHI	Teven Jenkins	1	1.0	OL	2021	2	39	0	6	2
ATL	Richie Grant	1	1.0	DB	2021	2	40	0	16	0

Armed with the 35th and 38th overall picks in this year’s draft, the Jets are set to make two selections within the heart of this sweet spot. They are currently the only team that owns two of the second round’s first eight picks.

This is a draft class that is better known for its depth than its star power at the top. Plenty of intriguing prospects will be available in the early second round.

Some of the most popular second-round options for the Jets include Penn State receiver Jahan Dotson, Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker, Connecticut defensive tackle Travis Jones, and Baylor safety Jalen Pitre among many others.

New York seemed to strike gold in this range last year by selecting Elijah Moore with the 34th pick. Can Joe Douglas do it twice more?

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The NFL draft has a sweet spot, and in 2022, it belongs to the NY Jets - Jets X-Factor
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